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| Doghouse_Reilly |
on Thu 29 Dec 11, 4:33 AM to the Informed_Debate group.
I got three predictions for 2012:
1. Civil unrest across the UK, USA and EU gets worse. I see that as an inevitable consequence of government policies in those areas. Nobody has yet seriously addressed the elephants in rooms across the modern world that is wealth disparity, and until they do people are going to be pissed off. Expect England to burn once the football season is over and the weather is amenable to going out at night and starting a few fires.
2. War with Iran. The USA has played the long game on this one, setting itself up with bases in Afghanistan and Iraq well ahead of time, and I think that, with the Afghan and Iraqi situations deteriorating along with domestic issues, the USA will have to strike sooner rather than later. NATO will be dragged along for the ride, natch. I know it's a bit of a bleak forecast, but the similarities to the Iraq war build up are so overt that it feels almost like the USA is going through a formality. Claim they have nukes, ignore the protestations, invade, find no nukes, take the oil. Rince, repeat.
3. The NHS gets privatised. Nobody notices. Oh, wait, that happened already.
So anybody got any other predictions? Spill them beans.
| 29 Dec 11, 12:01 PM Rigour UK, 21 mths |
I'm going to play it safe so I'll go with another Euro zone crisis. More hedonism NOW | ||||
| 29 Dec 11, 12:22 PM Attitude_Adjuster UK(N), 6 yrs |
I kinda think they have to let Syria pop before anything happens in Iran.... And all men kill the thing they love, By all let this be heard, Some do it with a bitter look, Some with a flattering word, The coward does it with a kiss, The brave man with a sword! | ||||
| 29 Dec 11, 12:35 PM bohnanza UK(FK), 12 yrs |
The only trouble with predictions is the future. There are three laws of predictions: 1) Never take current circumstances into account, they don't last. 2) Never be too specific. 3) No one remembers the wrong ones. To these laws must be added a corollary for number 3: Except me. I collect predictions and check them years later. I have a book called The Book of Predictions where the team behind the Book of Lists got various experts to make predictions about their field for 1, 5, 10, 20 and 50 years ahead. Collectively they are woefully rubbish at it. A success rate of 4% in 5 years is no more than guesswork. An example of how shit experts are just one year ahead can be found here. They also got a lot of psychics to make predictions. they were even worse at it. I have the perfect accent for conflict resolution, shame about the personality. | ||||
| 29 Dec 11, 2:29 PM bohnanza UK(FK), 12 yrs |
It will never happen because Iran will just shut the oil off from Arabian Gulf. The last time oil was reduced by just 10% it took five weeks for fuel ration books to be distributed, driving banned on a Sunday and reduced speed limits. 16% of the worlds oil goes through the 34 mile wide Straits of Hormuz. It doesn't take many ground to ship missiles to stop all oil. On its own Iran produces 5% of the worlds oil, just shutting that off would have major repercussions. You cannot start a major war tomorrow, it takes a lot of build up and as soon as the build up starts the oil stops. I have the perfect accent for conflict resolution, shame about the personality. | ||||
| 29 Dec 11, 3:31 PM jim_scot2000 UK(EH), 5 yrs |
I think you may well be right. All of the driving forces seem to be there. All it takes is one wrong move and we would be in a lot of trouble. If it starts in the gulf then its Bye Bye Falklands as well I'm afraid. Happy New Year
Don't get me started on Creosote ! | ||||
| 29 Dec 11, 5:41 PM shit_sub UK(W), 5 yrs |
this programme might be of interest... | ||||
| 29 Dec 11, 7:06 PM chegne UK(EX), 8 mths |
Agreed. Don't know about football, but July is the most likely month for serious unrest, in any country. The biggest common factor in those arrested for rioting was they were young and unemployed. Youth unemployment will be a lot higher in summer 2012 than it was last summer.
Agreed, and the most likely date will be in April, or least that's when they'll be cranking up the paranoia to the max. Our own military chiefs are apparently working on plans already, without even being asked to. I don't think they'll invade though- just bombs and missiles. Iran is not Iraq- its much bigger, more difficult terrain, 60 million people, more united than the Iraqis, and their president has a lot of popular support. This might not stop some Republican fundamentalist US president from invading, but it would stop Obama. However, Obama does need a military victory before the election in November. He can't achieve anything more constructive cos the Republicans in Congress sabotage all his efforts. But he can make war, and that's the one policy they won't oppose.
Not quite, but they're getting there, and it's definately their long term aim. But this country does still value the NHS, and regards it as "our" property, so a lot of groundwork needed before full privatisation. Expect well-publicised NHS scandals, prompting tabloid demands that "something must be done".
The Arab Spring continues, cos it's only just started really, The Egyptian Army, who've always been the real rulers, sacrificed Mubarak but intend hanging onto their own power. They'll try to manipulate the Muslim Brotherhood to maintain the status quo. The radicals who actually risked their lives in the revolution won't stand for this. Same in all the other Arab countries. It'll get a lot more complicated, because all the big players see genuine popular freedom as a "power vacuum", and immediately try to "scoop up" alll the spare power that's lying around. America, the Saudis, and Iran are all in there, trying to manipulate events. E.g. America provided training for Egyptian dissidents, while Saudi Arabia financed the fundamentalist "Al-Nur" party with $100 million. Again, July is the most volatile month, potentially. I don't think the revolutionary wave will spread to Russia or China though, despite the wishful thinking of many Western commentators. Firstly there aren't enough young people, and its youth who make revolutions. Arab countries have a very high birth rate, hence lots of young people. China has the one child policy. I know there's been big demos against Putin, but mainly in the two biggest cities. and peaceful demos don't change anything- I've been on enough of them myself. So 100,000 demonstratec in Moscow against Putin's vote-rigging? Well about a million demonstrated in London against the Iraq invasion, but it didn't stop Blair going ahead. And Putin's a lot tougher than Blair. Besides which, a lot of Russians think Putin's a hero- almost as good as Stalin! The Leverson inquiry into the Press will come to nothing. The tabloids have too many politicians by the balls, and the current lot of leaders don't have the self-confidence to defy them even if they personally haven't any dirty secrets. The economic crisis will continue and get worse, because no one in government has any clue how to tackle it. There are obvious solutions, but they're ideologically unacceptable to the tories/libdems/nulab orthodoxy. Looking ahead a bit further, I think Scotland will be independent within 10 years.
Edited 29 Dec 11, 7:07 PM by chegne | ||||
| 29 Dec 11, 8:38 PM Empress_Martine UK(HA), 2 yrs £      |
The danger of prodictions,get it right and everyone will remember you but get it wrong and you are forgotten.Certainly there will be more riots and the eurozone will collapse,abet a slow dance macarbe.Expect more terrorism with crude dirty nuclear weapons.Things are going to be dark,very dark! http://empressm7.uboot.com/ http://www.socialkink.com/empressmartine Vampire, pro/lifestyle ts dom/switch.Ageplay mummy/aunty/AB,medical play,domestic,energy, outdoor specialist."Who you calling"@?!;:$£<Σ#"!" "Did you just call me a "@€$££!?"! Edited 29 Dec 11, 8:42 PM by Empress_Martine | ||||
| 30 Dec 11, 7:32 AM MasterYouMasterMe BD, 9 mths |
US bases in Afghanistan increasingly need logistical support from Central Asia and the Russians, who hold the keys to this, have been protecting Iran. The US has pulled out of Iraq, no long game there. However, there could be conflict if the diplomacy and sabre rattling over the nuclear issue goes wrong, especially if Iran does threaten the oil supplies from the Gulf. It would turn into a Shia/Persian vs. Arab/Sunni conflict (during the Arab Spring Saudi Arabia showed what it was willing to do to put down a Shia uprising in Bahrain, with the US in the thick of it. With the 5th Fleet based in Qatar, and forces fighting from the Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait and Diego Garcia the Iranian fleet and air force would not last long. The oil supply would still be cut during a recession causing greater global pain: Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Bahrain, Lebanon and Israel would all be further destabilised as part of Iranian retaliation against both the west and Arab/Sunni Islam. Yes; everyone is probably planning for conflict, this type of planning is as normal for a State to do as is planning for where to build schools. If a conflict does break out planning will probably revolve around how to spin the massive downsides as a victory. You have to love politicians. | ||||
| 30 Dec 11, 1:00 PM SmoothSwitch3 UK(YO), 15 mths |
Interesting predictions for 2012, not sure about war with Iran TBH, I think the US and EU will be content enough to see quite how far and wide the Arab spring can reach, it has clearly unsettled the arab league given their responses to some of the more recent government crack-downs; for the first time... EVER we've actually seen some action taken and Afghanistan was expensive both to the US military and the responsible politicians' popularity. When it comes to the financial meltdown in the eurozone, that's not going away any time soon, the bloated european powers are essentially aiding their own downfall with their dithering and in-fighting. I personally imagine the biggest foreseeable story of 2012 will most probably be the inevitable fall of the eurozone; founded on blue-sky thinking I can only hope lessons are learnt for the next attempt - and there does need to be a next attempt, despite the opinions of regressive red-top readers (no offense if anyone here falls into that group, just pathos :P)
As for my own predictions, I feel it must be said we are moving closer to the "People's republic of China" finding out why homo-sapien still resorts in large part to capitalism, the rumblings on the ground say once again it's been proven that we are incapable of founding a sustainable communism. Preach communism, practice capitalism; you know what they say about fooling the people Unless i've missed something, anything else is up in the air IMO, it's a wait and see, this year's certainly had its fair share of twists and turns, only time will tell what new ways to upset and dehumanize one-another we can find in the new year. Happy hogmanay all! :P |
