Tue 4 Nov 08, 4:48 PM
ToakReon
UK(RH), 12 yrs
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I was reminded today about the above quotation by a newspaper headline. True, the headline wasn't directly BDSM related, but it demonstrates how "statistics" can be misleading - and that can certainly be relevant to us.
The headline went something like "Girls who watch 'racy' television are more likely to get pregnant" - certainly the meaning was close, even if the exact wording isn't quite right.
The implication seemed to be that somehow sexually explicit television encouraged irresponsible sexual behaviour - almost exactly the same argument that I have come across several times supposedly connecting sexually violent imagery and violent sexual behaviour.
I am reminded of a maths teacher at my school, long long ago. He said:-
"There is a statistical connection between the wearing of gold fob watches and obesity ... and yet few people would claim wearing a gold watch makes you fat."
If a girl is interested in sex and likes it, then she will probably have more sex (thus increasing her chances of becoming pregnant) AND be more inclined to watch sexually explicit television. If a girl doesn't really enjoy her sexuality, then she will probably not choose to watch sexy TV and will also probably not get pregnant owning to being sexually inactive.
Personally I'd be astonished if there WASN'T a statistical correlation between pregnancy rates and the enjoyment of "racy" TV ... yet that connection implies NOTHING AT ALL about any cause-and-effect relationship between the two.
It's a crying shame that people with axes to grind are so willing to try and pull the statistical wool over everyone's eyes.
Toak FEMALE, BONDAGE-FRIENDLY MODEL SOUGHT. I am seeking to update my "How To" shibari bondage pictures (see my profile pics, the clothed blonde tied in red and black) with a model more "enthusiastic" about BDSM, and who is happy to be photographed nude. MEMO ME if this is you.
Edited Tue 4 Nov 08, 4:51 PM by ToakReon
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4 Nov 08, 4:58 PM
d_scouple
UK(KY), 4 yrs |
There is also a correlation between the number of doctors in a country and the number of donkeys.
The more doctors there are, the fewer donkeys.
Therefore, it is clear that doctors eat donkeys! What other explanation can there be? The Purpose of Life's Journey is not to arrive safely at the grave in a well-preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, totally worn out, shouting ... Holy Shit!! What a Ride!!!
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4 Nov 08, 5:05 PM
sirguym
UK(HR), 6 yrs
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ToakReon wrote:
Lies, damn lies and statistics ...
I was reminded today about the above quotation by a newspaper headline. True, the headline wasn't directly BDSM related, but it demonstrates how "statistics" can be misleading - and that can certainly be relevant to us.
The headline went something like "Girls who watch 'racy' television are more likely to get pregnant" - certainly the meaning was close, even if the exact wording isn't quite right.
The implication seemed to be that somehow sexually explicit television encouraged irresponsible sexual behaviour - almost exactly the same argument that I have come across several times supposedly connecting sexually violent imagery and violent sexual behaviour.
I am reminded of a maths teacher at my school, long long ago. He said:-
"There is a statistical connection between the wearing of gold fob watches and obesity ... and yet few people would claim wearing a gold watch makes you fat."
If a girl is interested in sex and likes it, then she will probably have more sex (thus increasing her chances of becoming pregnant) AND be more inclined to watch sexually explicit television. If a girl doesn't not really enjoy her sexuality, then she will probably not choose to watch sexy TV and will also probably not get pregnant owning to being sexually inactive.
Personally I'd be astonished if there WASN'T a connection between pregnancy rates and the enjoyment of "racy" TV ... yet that connection implies NOTHING AT ALL about any cause-and-effect relationship between the two.
It's a crying shame that people with axes to grind are so willing to try and pull the statistical wool over everyone's eyes.
Toak
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They really think that way. It goes:
"In the good old days there were no sex-crimes, sex education or teen pregnancies." + "Since the 1970s there's been the advent of sex education, an explosion in the amount of pornography available and the advent of the internet."
Therefore, they think: "The explosion of pornography, introduction of sex education and the advent of the internet has led directly to the epidemic of sex crimes."
When actually teen pregnancies and sex crimes have always been with us, it is just that when a girl would be stoned to death or blamed for it, there wasn't much point in accusing anyone of rape. When your child got pregnant and it was a matter of shame it was got rid of by a back street abortionist or covered up.
Both are largely the result of ignorance, of a deliberate policy of fostering ignorance about sex in young people, promulgated most insidiously by the organised religions.
Sex education and more (and better) pornography are the answer, not the problem!
We have, for society's sake, to achieve both, in the teeth of opposition from the dogmatic churches.
Religion: or rather ignorant, doctrinaire and blinkered dogmatism of those who lack enlightened vision in the catholic, evangelical, pentecostal cults of the christian church, orthodox jews and devout muslims are the problem
We, whether we're atheists, agnostics, or enlightened theists, along with vanilla secularists, are the answer.
The problem with censorship, the current CJIA 'possession' offence, and the ECRB checks is that they create a climate of fear and banish any home-grown porn and erotica - so the market will be flooded with cheap and nasty rubbish.
So the more they clamp down, the worse it'll get and the more they'll feel justified in clamping down further.
Truly a vicious circle! Academy Incorporated: turning fantasy into reality,
fast friendly, helpful, discreet service, with integrity
www.academywear.com for retro adult school and maid uniform guy@tawse.com PO Box 135, Hereford, HR2 7WL, UK +44(0)1432 343100 [pi
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4 Nov 08, 6:40 PM
Bubbles_2
UK(E), 6 yrs
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In poor countries, donkeys do basic medical procedures, deliver babies, give flu jabs.
In richer countries, the doctors do these jobs so the donkeys emigrate to Spain, where they are thrown off steeples.
d_scouple wrote:
There is also a correlation between the number of doctors in a country and the number of donkeys.
The more doctors there are, the fewer donkeys.
Therefore, it is clear that doctors eat donkeys! What other explanation can there be?
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Club Subversion
Crossing the Rubicon
FleursduMal
bobette's MySpace
Beginners Guide to BDSM[/ur
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4 Nov 08, 6:48 PM
deviantmind
UK(CB), 6 yrs
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My old maths teacher once spent a good part of a lesson explaining how statistics can be twisted to mean anything you want, to try and support your view. In fact I think what started him off was that the government had published some stats, which he basically slated and showed how laughable they can be at times.
edited for errors Life moves pretty fast, if you don't sit back once in a while you may miss it.
Everybody dies but not everyone truely lives
Edited 4 Nov 08, 7:37 PM by deviantmind
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4 Nov 08, 7:22 PM
Degenerate
UK(M), 5 yrs
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cor that was insightful! thanks for sharing it 
De Sign up to CAAN's statement - http://www.caan.org.uk
Sexuality - strong and warm and wild and free,
Sexuality - your laws do not apply to me
(Billy Bragg)
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4 Nov 08, 7:29 PM
wonderer
UK, 5 yrs
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There's a book entitled "How to lie with statistics" - read it ages ago.
Anyone with even a basic knowledge of stats can see that almost all stats quoted in newspapers or by politicians are meaningless at best and often misleading.
one of the classic errors is to attribute cause and effect to a mere observed correlation. It is in some cases possible to construct experiments and select suitable statistical tests to prove cause and effect, but a mere observed correlation can never do that.
ETA - another favourite is "8 out of 10 owners said their cats preferred it". Leaving aside the question of how the owners know, one would have to ask how the question was posed. But also a sample of 10 is far too small as a simple chi squared test would quickly show. If 800 out of 1000 owners said so, that would be much more convincing.
Edited 4 Nov 08, 7:32 PM by wonderer
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4 Nov 08, 9:05 PM
SirOpenSource
UK(E), 6 yrs
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wonderer wrote:
ETA - another favourite is "8 out of 10 owners said their cats preferred it". Leaving aside the question of how the owners know, one would have to ask how the question was posed. But also a sample of 10 is far too small as a simple chi squared test would quickly show. If 800 out of 1000 owners said so, that would be much more convincing.
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But did you know that 8 out of 10 cats said their owners preferred kebabs to cat food [the other 2 were apparently out at the kebab shop when the interviewer called].
SS
This insert was added using 100% recycled words.
www.Londonmunch.co.uk
http://wintolin.org
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4 Nov 08, 9:30 PM
spirifer
UK, 6 yrs
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sirguym wrote:
ToakReon wrote:
Lies, damn lies and statistics ...
I was reminded today about the above quotation by a newspaper headline. True, the headline wasn't directly BDSM related, but it demonstrates how "statistics" can be misleading - and that can certainly be relevant to us.
The headline went something like "Girls who watch 'racy' television are more likely to get pregnant" - certainly the meaning was close, even if the exact wording isn't quite right.
The implication seemed to be that somehow sexually explicit television encouraged irresponsible sexual behaviour - almost exactly the same argument that I have come across several times supposedly connecting sexually violent imagery and violent sexual behaviour.
I am reminded of a maths teacher at my school, long long ago. He said:-
"There is a statistical connection between the wearing of gold fob watches and obesity ... and yet few people would claim wearing a gold watch makes you fat."
If a girl is interested in sex and likes it, then she will probably have more sex (thus increasing her chances of becoming pregnant) AND be more inclined to watch sexually explicit television. If a girl doesn't not really enjoy her sexuality, then she will probably not choose to watch sexy TV and will also probably not get pregnant owning to being sexually inactive.
Personally I'd be astonished if there WASN'T a connection between pregnancy rates and the enjoyment of "racy" TV ... yet that connection implies NOTHING AT ALL about any cause-and-effect relationship between the two.
It's a crying shame that people with axes to grind are so willing to try and pull the statistical wool over everyone's eyes.
Toak
|
They really think that way. It goes:
"In the good old days there were no sex-crimes, sex education or teen pregnancies." + "Since the 1970s there's been the advent of sex education, an explosion in the amount of pornography available and the advent of the internet."
Therefore, they think: "The explosion of pornography, introduction of sex education and the advent of the internet has led directly to the epidemic of sex crimes."
When actually teen pregnancies and sex crimes have always been with us, it is just that when a girl would be stoned to death or blamed for it, there wasn't much point in accusing anyone of rape. When your child got pregnant and it was a matter of shame it was got rid of by a back street abortionist or covered up.
Both are largely the result of ignorance, of a deliberate policy of fostering ignorance about sex in young people, promulgated most insidiously by the organised religions.
Sex education and more (and better) pornography are the answer, not the problem!
We have, for society's sake, to achieve both, in the teeth of opposition from the dogmatic churches.
Religion: or rather ignorant, doctrinaire and blinkered dogmatism of those who lack enlightened vision in the catholic, evangelical, pentecostal cults of the christian church, orthodox jews and devout muslims are the problem
We, whether we're atheists, agnostics, or enlightened theists, along with vanilla secularists, are the answer.
The problem with censorship, the current CJIA 'possession' offence, and the ECRB checks is that they create a climate of fear and banish any home-grown porn and erotica - so the market will be flooded with cheap and nasty rubbish.
So the more they clamp down, the worse it'll get and the more they'll feel justified in clamping down further.
Truly a vicious circle!
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If you had actually bothered to do any research into the article which gave rise to the story ToakReon's referring to, you'd know that it had nothing whatsoever to do with organised religion:
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Does Watching Sex on Television Predict Teen Pregnancy? Findings From a National Longitudinal Survey of Youth
Chandra A, Martino SC, Collins RL, Elliott MN, Berry SH, Kanouse DE, Miu A Pediatrics, Pediatrics 2008;122: 1047-1054.
Objective
There is increasing evidence that youth exposure to sexual content on television shapes sexual attitudes and behavior in a manner that may influence reproductive health outcomes. To our knowledge, no previous work has empirically examined associations between exposure to television sexual content and adolescent pregnancy.
Methods
Data from a national longitudinal survey of teens (12-17 years of age, monitored to 15-20 years of age) were used to assess whether exposure to televised sexual content predicted subsequent pregnancy for girls or responsibility for pregnancy for boys. Multivariate logistic regression models controlled for other known correlates of exposure to sexual content and pregnancy. We measured experience of a teen pregnancy during a 3-year period.
Results
Exposure to sexual content on television predicted teen pregnancy, with adjustment for all covariates. Teens who were exposed to high levels of television sexual content (90th percentile) were twice as likely to experience a pregnancy in the subsequent 3 years, compared with those with lower levels of exposure (10th percentile).
Conclusions
This is the first study to demonstrate a prospective link between exposure to sexual content on television and the experience of a pregnancy before the age of 20. Limiting adolescent exposure to the sexual content on television and balancing portrayals of sex in the media with information about possible negative consequences might reduce the risk of teen pregnancy. Parents may be able to mitigate the influence of this sexual content by viewing with their children and discussing these depictions of sex.
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The report was produced by the RAND Corporation:
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RAND Mission: The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decision making through research and analysis.
For 60 years, decision makers in the public and private sectors have turned to the RAND Corporation for objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the nation and the world. These challenges include such critical social and economic issues as education, poverty, crime, and the environment, as well as a range of national security issues.
RAND researchers and analysts continue to be on the cutting edge of their fields, working with decision makers in both the public and private sectors to find solutions to today's difficult, sensitive, and important problems. The high caliber of our researchers is well-known, as evidenced by the many Nobel Laureates who have been affiliated with RAND, either as employees, consultants, or in an advisory capacity.
Through our dedication to high-quality and objective research and analysis and with sophisticated analytical tools developed over many years, RAND engages clients to create knowledge, insight, information, options, and solutions that will be both effective and enduring.
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Wasn't it lack of evidence and hysterical conjecture on the part of politicians that got us landed with the EP provisions in the CJIA in the first place?
But why let a few facts get in the way of a good old rant, eh?  The state has no business in the bedrooms of the nation - Pierre Trudeau
A denizen of a right little, tight little island.
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4 Nov 08, 9:42 PM
rubberroy
UK(TN), 6 yrs
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A bit like the stats on BBC News this morning, relating the outcome of the American election to American football and something else peripheral which I forget, but the basis was for the last 4 elections a certain team won and the republicans got in; this time that team lost. O yeh, the other was to do with the height of the candidates; the taller candidate always wins according to the stats.
Interesting I'm sure.
Home Office figures: 7% of all roads deaths are caused by vehicles exceeding the speed limit.
Anti-speed campaigners and the cash cow police forces using speed cameras claim about 32% of all deaths on the road are caused by speeding motorists. Note the subtle difference! Source: www.pepipoo.co.uk Rubber Roy
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4 Nov 08, 11:08 PM
doulos
UK(SW), 7 yrs
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I am not sure about this particular source, but RAND is a rather interesting organisation: http://hnn.us/articles/49470.html
Similar to our European equivalent, Common Purpose. "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
H. L. Mencken
Edited 4 Nov 08, 11:09 PM by doulos
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